The need for and benefit of owning a Car - depends on where

For over 5 years, I have not had a car for my visits to Chandigarh and I have rarely missed it. Even after the age of  70, I can easily walk and do most of  my  work. On occasions when  I did need a vehicle, Uber/Ola have been very useful. Usually, I get a taxi in a short period of time. It is the advantage of living in the center of the city and my trips are to places from where taxi driver will have no problem getting a new customer.

I wish I had the option of a taxi on demand in Goa, whenever I needed it. But I don't. So, I continue with owning a car which I will need to replace as it will be reaching retirement age of 20 even though it is not driven much and runs well. In stead of  using a taxi, when my children were also here, it was simpler to rent a car for 2 weeks!

It is obvious that a taxi will not be economical from the perspective of the consumer in Goa for either the short distances that I need or even an evening trip to a nearby beach. There just isn't enough volume of traffic throughout the day for a driver to make enough money.

In Delhi, I used Uber more this time than I usually do. I normally use metro only and walk and this time, an auto driving over my wife's foot had made the option of  walking impossible. 

Stuck in traffic, I would wonder how  much the driver could possibly be making. It couldn't be much. The condition of the taxis in Delhi reflected that. 

Uber is a terrible model. The society needs something better. Uber represents a need; however, the people who profit from it are NOT the ones providing the service.

The difference in the cost of using a car and taxi has the following parts:

• Operational cost. In this case, it makes little difference whether it is  a personal car or a taxi.
• Capital cost. In all likelihood, a taxi is used a lot more than a personal car. So, the effective cost per km should be lower for a taxi.
• Driver's earnings. We don't pay ourselves for driving, so this is indeed the big challenge.

If we want the ownership of personal cars to reduce, the  society must agree to guarantee a minimum income to the drivers - at least until self-driving vehicles replace them. 

Something like MANREGA for the urban areas?

 

Tremendous Expenditure and Progress in Infrastructure and We are even Slower

 I drove for 50 minutes from Mapusa and just reached Bambolim. It would have taken another 20 min to reach the Dabolim airport.

When I had moved to Goa 30 years ago, it would take me 50 minutes to reach the airport.

To be fair, a year ago, I had again reached the airport in 50 minutes with the new bridges over Mandovi and Zuari rivers and the new expressway from Bambolim to Zuari bridge.

I am also pretty certain that once the elevated highway is completed in Porvorim in a year or two, I will again be able to drive to the airport in 50 minutes.

I suppose that is progress. Here is an example of a regular experience for me and this is 2 and half years AFTER the report and - “We have written to the NHAI about the issues at the junction and steps to be taken to rectify the problem”. 

Probably the designers did not include or talk to anyone who stayed in Mapusa or was familiar with it.

Suppose instead, we spent a part of the money spent on improving highway and bridges on public transport, could it have been any worse?

First objection that comes to mind is from the categorization of the expenditure:

• Building roads and bridges is spent on infrastructure - A GOOD thing as it is an investment for the  future
• Spending money on public transport is a subsidy - Obviously a BAD thing. 
• Why can't we categorize it as a SAVING of money we do not need to spend on infrastructure to have an even better quality of life in the future?

 

Universalise Holidays

Wouldn't it be nice if the human society agreed to a common set of holidays but each group can give the holiday its own name and celebrate it in its own traditional way? 

The  following holidays would seem to be great for our current lifestyle:

1. One holiday each month.

2. Major holiday every quarter.

3. Each holiday will be on the 5th day of the week - may be the last one of the month.

4. Each major holiday will have  4th and 5th days off.

We will have the same working days - 1 to 5 with 6 and 7 being the weekend. However, some societies may call the weekend Sat/Sun, Thu/Fri or Mon/Tue or whatever their heritage demands.

No worries about which group gets how many holidays. Peace descends on Earth :)

What are the possible exit conditions of the Coronavirus Lockdown loop?

Being locked in is not pleasant. There is also a little guilt of going out of the house, especially for walks, even if there is virtually no one around. Could we be increasing the duration of the lockdown by being careless? Uncertainty about the duration of the lockdown is stressful.

So, I thought that if I were writing a program for the lockdown, what are the conditions which would determine the exit condition for the lockdown loop for a particular region with no person entering or leaving the region:

1. There are no new cases emerging.
1. The virus stopped spreading for no known reason. This is the way The Plague by Albert Camus ends.
2. The virus has disappeared from the community thanks to the lockdown.
2. The community has developed a herd immunity.
1. If the lockdown is perfect, how can the community ever develop herd immunity?

If the region has not developed herd immunity and the borders of the region are opened, we will need to make sure that no infected or potentially infected person enters the community. Hence, testing and quarantine of each visitor will be mandatory.

If in spite of all efforts, an infected person enters the community, the lockdown will need to be imposed again.

Can inexpensive services and decent earnings co-exist?

A friend posted a link to Why Uber is a scam: maths explains. I had seen it before but I now have an additional perspective. I do not keep a car in Chandigarh and use Ola/Uber reasonably frequently. I would have liked to use the same option in Goa.

I can easily believe that in the long run, given the fares, the drivers cannot be making a comfortable living. I also realize that if the fares reflect my desire that drivers make what I believe to be a comfortable wages, I would wind up owning a car.

There is a conflict and no easy way around it. As a society, it is in our collective interest that there aren't too many cars - both to save on parking spaces and prevent congestion and pollution on roads.

Long term solution is obvious and inevitable. The Ola/Uber vehicles will be driver-less.

Meanwhile, what if we had a minimum income provided to all citizens. Then a driver's earnings are over and above the minimum needs. Hence, the needs of society, the consumer and the service provider can coincide.

This model would be useful for all services from helping patients/old people who are bedridden or need assistance to inexpensive coffee/tea shops not exploiting the workers.




 

Wealth, Quality of LIfe and Paradise Lost

I was pretty sure that I would retire in Goa. I loved the place. I like the greenery and the beaches. I like the small towns and villages with the comfort of a modern life.

Now somehow Bob Dylan's Things Have Changed resonates. The road in front of my flat now hums with traffic and it is bound to get worse. Taxi services are aimed at tourists who have no other options. With such conflicts, there is little chance of Ola or Uber like services.

If one way taxis from home to point of destination were easily available at reasonable costs, I for example would be happy to use them and not own a car. Who wants to search for a parking place near a beach or in the town?

I can't imagine roads being cleared of parked vehicles anytime soon. We don't need more roads but using the roads more effectively. That too is not going to happen.

I don't see any efforts on changing the mindset of the people. We should expect polite and courteous behaviour on the roads. Discourtesy should be the exception and not the other way around. Try showing courtesy to pedestrians and observe their nervousness!

I don't see any chance of cars being stopped and parked outside the coastal villages. We should move around the beach area by walking or using small electric vehicles like golf carts.

I can expect that we will widen the roads, create new roads. We will not create a society where people do not need to move around so much or need personal vehicles.  We will not be able to manage well with what we have. Growth is the modern mantra :(

In short, Goa is no longer an obvious choice for retirement. The cold and the heat of Chandigarh no longer seems so bad. I can walk to rose garden.

The Stress of Walking - Whats Wrong with Me?

I am walking in Mumbai. I know it as I am reminded by honking every few seconds. The upside is that there is no way that I could get lost in thought and be hit by a vehicle while crossing a road.

There must be quiet areas. We went to Powaii recently. Crossing the road to go to the lake side was an achievement. We didn't walk for long. I suppose it was to be expected. The walkway was nice  but the waters near the shore were filthy. We walked a little further and could no longer ignore a very noticeable odour. The odour was far from pleasant :(

I am walking in NCL Colony in Pune. The nearest post office is in NCL colony. It is wooded and a beautiful campus. Yet, I find that my mind is not relaxed. Whats wrong with me? I become aware of the hum of the traffic on the main road just across the boundary. It may not be visible to the eyes but there is no way that you can ignore the vehicles :(

My flat in Goa used to very quiet even though it is close to an industrial estate. It was quiet except for a year when an industry across our flat had put up a generator, which seemed to be designed to vibrate. I wish I could claim credit but fortunately the factory disappeared and so did the generator :)

However, I can no longer have hope a quiet miracle. The small road in front seems to be going somewhere now. There is a continuous flow of traffic on it. I suppose we will get the pleasure of watching traffic jams as well. Will I opt to forego cross-ventilation and succumb to an air conditioner? Oh, going for a walk - the best option is to take a car ride somewhere :( Reminds me of The Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie.

It has become easy for me to empathise with the victims of wind power. I would any day opt for the risk of being blown to bits by the explosion of a nuclear power plant.

Is age making me senile or has our environment deteriorated to such an extent that at least my mind can't ignore the noise anymore?

Update: Took the risk of going to the beach today. The traffic was not too bad and no high beams on the way back :) Walked on the beach. If only the movement of cars could produce the rhythm of the waves!

The soothing sounds of the waves are a great therapy.

Moral hazard of going to a Goan Wedding

It was in 1964 at the wise age of 14 influenced by the flower generation, I became a vegetarian and have remained so for half a century. I had found solace in G B Shaw's statement

  “I do not want to make my stomach a graveyard of dead animals.”    George Bernard Shaw

Yesterday, I became aware of having eaten a tiny chicken sandwich soon after eating it. I drowned my sorrow with another glass of beer.

I can't help but wonder would it have been so hard for the wedding organizers to have an option of a vegetarian snacks plate? Or am I being unduly difficult?

Anyway, I was mentally prepared to leave before dinner knowing that the buffet won't open till well after my bedtime and I did :)

However, this is the wedding I am not likely to forget because I ate a chicken sandwich!

Nuclear power and human reaction to risks

Yesterday, I saw a documentary "Gentilly or not to be" about the closure or refurbishing of a nuclear power plant in Quebec. I was deeply affected. Was the increase in the risk of cancer in children being deliberately ignored? I spent a couple of hours searching and reading various articles, especially related to the German study.

I then went for a walk and while reflecting on it, started to wonder about my fear of flying. Even today, as the plane takes off or lands, my stomach tightens, my heartbeat increases. I am unreasonably stressed. I think it is related to the minimal survival chances should there be an accident. The true risk is the probability of not surviving and there is an accident! Our emotions seem to ignore the second factor!

I started to look at some numbers to, at least, get a non-emotive perspective.

• Mortality rate for children under 5 per 1000 live births  (2012)
  Canada 6, India 56
• Reasons for these deaths:
  According to UNICEF,^[6] most child deaths (and 70% in developing countries)^[7] result from one or more of the following five causes:

acute respiratory infections
diarrhea
measles
malaria
malnutrition

• Childhood Cancer

The most common cancers in children are (childhood) leukemia (34%), brain tumors (23%), and lymphomas (12%).^[11] In 2005, 4.1 of every 100,000 young people under 20 years of age in the U.S. were diagnosed with leukemia, and 0.8 per 100,000 died from it.^[5]

The issue is not just cancer. It is overall health. I think I will still choose to stay close to a nuclear power plant than downstream from a dam or near a thermal power plant.

Love of Films - Remembering how it started

Thinking about Stanley Kubrick and Juvenile Justice reminded me of the very first film of Stanley Kubrick I had seen - Dr. Strangelove. I suspect that after seeing that film I probably stopped wanting to be nuclear physicist :)

Actually, that film was among the first English films I had seen, thanks to Government of India. My father was among the last to be transferred who had to travel to US from India with his family by ship! The ship from Southampton to New York showed a film every day. So, I saw 5 or 6 films during that journey.

The ones I still remember aside from Dr. Strangelove:

7 faces of Dr. Lao - probably the only one meant for my age at the time.
7 Days in May - I liked Kirk Douglas a lot though I remember him most for his role in Kubrick's Spartacus.

So, Thank you, Govt. of India!

Oh, a political thriller I found more thrilling than 7 Days in May: Costa Gavras' Z

Why can't we go up, after all our population has gone sky high

I feel very sad every time I read news like this:

While Panjab University will be allotted 100 acres in Kajheri and the area vacated after razing Colony Number 5, the PGIMER will be given 150 acres in the Sarangpur institutional area.
Confirming the development, UT Chief Architect Sumit Kaur said: “The PGIMER will be allocated land only in the institutional area, which may be split in parts.”
A senior UT official said PGIMER Director Prof YK Chawla had requested for land area closest possible to the existing campus in view of the emergency involved in patient care and quick commutation of staff and patients.

The  reason is that we as a society seem to be remarkably closed minded, not just to the idea of building up. Building up does not mean arbitrary increase in height of buildings. It is a conscious decision which may allow a far easier and more economical provision of infrastructure for a reasonably comfortable life. For example,

•  Waste management
• A complex can be compelled to have waste water treatment and recycling of that water for flushing and gardening
• Solid waste could be treated in the complex. I haven't heard anything more about the construction of biomethanation plant for waste treatment plant. I doubt if residents of 16 sector will quietly let the plant come up in their backyard.
•  Power management
• A complex can have a provision for power failures which are better and more economical than each home with its own set of inverters. (I wonder what happens to all the inverter batteries)
• If our society creates opportunities, solutions like the following may emerge from here
•  US teen designs compact nuclear reactor.
•  A startup says its technical advances could make fuel cells as cheap as grid power
• Lifestyle
• I can't think of an easier way to commute than walking to work aside from "Beam me up, Scotty"
• Adequate playgrounds in safe walking distance 

UPDATE: Came across the problem of garbage in the  garden city.

I find it very difficult to believe that

Simple solutions could lend themselves to cities across India. First, the city’s waste collectors should put a stop to picking up organic waste. These have to be composted in houses or within building communities.

I just don't see how millions of us can handle organic garbage within a house or a small complex. Had it been simple and economical, it would have spread virally. All people I know want to have clean surroundings. Most homes do not even have a garbage disposal unit like an InSinkErator for convenient disposal of waste food, which stinks a lot and very soon.

The men who made us fat - What can we do in India

While watching The Men who Made us Fat on BBC World , I was happy to realise that we still have options for small helpings in India. However, there is a growing trend towards bundling and offers in fast food restaurants to encourage us to consume more calories.

Even while shopping, we do look at various sizes to see if we get "a better value" for buying larger packages. Among the middle and upper classes, we cannot avoid noticing excessive weight on many.

So, it is imperative that we encourage some regulation now on packaged food industry to prevent these trends from becoming epidemic.

The simplest fairness rule could be that the cost of food should be the same per unit regardless of the packaging size and mandate a minimum size based on calorie count. Eliminate the 'value for money' syndrome with an option to buy small.

The second option of a Fat tax is as in Europe is well worth emulating for ensuring that the heavy snacks are consumed moderately.

Leaving it up to market forces is to hope for a miracle.

Future - A Very Convenient Society but without Jobs

I can't imagine a security guard who can hope to match the skills of even current robots, e.g. Knightscope's K5 beta. Such devices will replace security guards in, at least, high risk areas and soon.

Drones will deliver pizzas and our packages in case the delivery person is unreliable or expensive. The obvious implication is that such jobs cannot be anything other than low paying.

Robotic telemarketers may be a joke at present but reduction in the growth of call centers is inevitable. Call centers were probably the most important transformation in job market for the educated in India.

Who wouldn't like to see, at least, bad drivers replaced by driverless vehicles? 

Statistics as in "Unemployment in the Era of Jobless Growth" show that unemployment rate in India increases sharply as the level of education rises and is over 25% for graduates and above. It is not going to be cured by improvements in education. For example, I would expect that there is a far greater chance of some smart programmers replacing the need for programmers than most of the software engineering graduates being productive enough to be employable.

So, is any political party anywhere in the world talking about the needs of the society once a fair proportion of the society will be unemployable and a fair amount will work for low wages with little hope of improvement? We will need more government intervention and not less. Europe is probably better prepared for the future and India should emulate European welfare states rather than the US.

The bus protests in San Francisco may be just the beginning as the implications of a very convenient, tech driven society sink in.

We shop using computer programs, pay using computer programs. A computer program and a robot communicate and pack what we have ordered. A drone is informed of the delivery address and the package arrives at our doorstep!

How to hide from Big Data?

Fortunately, I am not using twitter so I am safe for a while from marketeers targeting my personality  :)

I am looking forward to a blogger providing a list of words which I may use in the blogs to ensure that the new software is assured that I am a part of the "neuroticism" segment of no commercial value to direct marketeers in conformity with 

the new software has the potential to serve people as individuals rather than “vague demographic blurs”.

'We’re coming after you' - taxman warn

Reading 'We’re coming after you' - taxman warn, I started to wonder what drives human motivation.

What if the Forbes list of Richest People was based on the quantum of direct taxes paid by an individual?  Wouldn't people want to be on it?

Hope Danes do not dismantle their welfare state but others learn from it

I read this news about the welfare state of Denmark with a lot of interest. The tone of the report was distinctly negative. It implies that something is wrong - the state is discouraging people from working.

It seems to me that the Danes are well off because they have hit upon the solution for the modern predicament - jobless growth! I may agree with Erik Brynjolfsson: The key to growth? Race with the machines; however, I find it hard to believe that all or even most human beings can be productively employed in a robotic future.

People may be able to spend their time, exactly as I am doing - writing a blog, reading and sharing news, spending some time on Google+ and, even, Facebook. But I am not earning anything from these activities. I have earned this 'right' to do nothing by 'retiring'. Society may have to face up to the reality that a fair fraction of the population will never be employed as appears to be happening in Spain.

I have to admit that anyone can do well in the new economy - what else can one say about Honey Boo Boo. Logic, though, tells us that anyone can does not imply everyone will. The best anti-dote for optimism remains A Cool Million!

New industries like Google, Facebook need an audience and content creators - an audience who are in a position to spend money making it worthwhile for advertiser to pay these companies.  We may have trouble doing so in India but the richer countries should be able to pay people to spend time on social media instead of working just like they pay farmers to not grow food. If the option boils down to dying or paying higher corporate taxes, the latter is bound to win.

I was surprised to find that the concept of negative income tax has been around so long and even more surprised that one of its first proponents was Milton Friedman.

Negative income tax may interesting side effects, e.g. better services. People may work in a coffee shop or a bar not to earn money but to interact with people. Many jobs may move from their lowly economic status to a higher socially conscious status. I recall reading that a prominent author worked as a nightwatchman so that he could work on his novel in peace!

For Indians in India, the future does not look rosy. We need to accept that robots are cheaper even in China! This news confirms the absurdity of the idea of demographic dividend. We have a large unemployed and unemployable population, unfit even for blogging or creating YouTube videos. It seems absurd to brag about it rather than working frantically to reduce population growth and move towards Danish style welfare state when each of us becomes a socially conscious rag-picker.

Robots will do the work but who will own them?

In the good old days, the Noblemen had a great time. Their serfs and slaves did the work while they appreciated the good things of life.

We won't need slaves. Robots will do just fine. There is just one little hitch. Will we be the owners of the robots. Not likely if we look at these statistics.

So, I suppose without any job or the wealth generated by the robots, we can spend our time creating content for youtube or facebook and, even better, consuming the content.

This brings up a contradiction. These sites need enough of us to click on ads and SPEND money. Unfortunately, most of us may not have any!

So, is the future bright with robots removing the drudgery or bleak with most of us surviving on dole - even if we are very well educated.

Digital cable and discovering European channels

I was saddened by the disappearance of BBC Entertainment from India. Hence, it was quite a surprise to channel surf and find German channel DW in English and TV5 Monde, French with English subtitles on many of the shows.

The first pleasure is the pleasure of watching a show without interruptions. I think I have not had that experience since watching PBS in US 40 years ago! And I do not have to run to decrease volume during the announcements! It is such a civilized experience :)

I like the documentaries as they offer a different perspective. E.g. there was a show about crime or rather its impact on the victims. I am also delighted to find that French cinema has not been taken over by Hollywood. The story matters and is not overwhelmed by special effects. I had loved French cinema in the 60's and 70's, especially the New Wave, and could watch films by Truffaut, Rohmer, Bresson, Bunuel and more any number of times :)

I wanted to give feedback to Rajya Sabha TV and Lok Sabha TV where the interruptions seem unnecessary. However, the feedback form asks for too much information and, at the end of it, it mentioned that I had entered an incorrect character and I could not find any. I had just used [0-9a-zA-Z,.]. At best there may have been an enter as well. It doesn't matter as the suggestion would have been ignored anyway.

I like these channels as they often have discussions which are not shouting matches, speakers being interrupted in mid-sentence and obnoxious behaviour by the comperes. There is, though, an unfortunate trend to follow the commercial channels and make the shows look similar with multiple windows and occasional aggressive behaviour.

Even DD could dispense with ads and schedule a break between shows where longer informative commercials could be shown. I saw such a commercial on DW of Frankfurt Airport and I watched it!

My father did not like it but I would have liked to have been born a European - well, actually, a Finn!

Please don't make Panaji into a 'world class' city

One of the  benefits of digital cable is that they are showing France's tv5monde and Germany's dw.de! It is remarkable how much better the viewing experience is without ads.

A few days ago, I came across a show on competition on tv5monde - LE VILLAGE PRÉFÉRÉ DES FRANÇAIS:

There are 22 villages, each more beautiful than the last. Each charming town offers a unique experience (rural, coastal, natural preserve, etc.). Each one has an extraordinary historical and cultural heritage. But which one was voted THE favourite village by the French?

It would be nice to have such a competition in Goa - probably the only state in India where the villages aand towns are actually comfortable. It may result in the once lovely places like Calangute and Candolim trailing badly and, hopefully, changing the mindset of the people.

I felt saddened by the failure of Skybus Metro as some facility like that is needed in order to discourage the migration of people towards urban centers. I wish politicians would consciously avoid making Panaji a 'world class city'; however, that is highly unlikely.

Urbanization results in phenomenal growth in the property values and how else can one get :

..holding company had assets worth Rs 287 crore as of end-March 2012 — much of it in cash — up from only Rs 43 crore at the end of March 2008.

Quite possibly all the success by just having advance information(insider trading?).

Commercialisation of special days

The first caller to wish me today for our wedding anniversary was a woman from our car dealer! It took me a while to realise why she was calling! After wishing me for our anniversary, she asked me if I would like to share my birthdate! I politely declined.

Afterwards I was trying to recollect when and why would I have shared the wedding date with the car dealer. May be I had been hoping they would send a cake or a bottle of wine :)