Showing posts with label complexity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label complexity. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Thanks CJP. Suddenly There is Hope - How to use tech in selection not just exams

The idea of centralised exams has always baffled me. Do they really measure merrit or test for understanding? To me the answer has obviously been a No.

For recruitment and placement, they seem like a claim on a food package - "Untouched by hands". It is absurdly simplistic to even imagine that this makes the system fair. It would be hard to even prove that the results are even fairer than ANY system. Consider the example of the elitist Ivy League universities - they give preference to children of alumni, children of large donors, children of highly influential people. The system may be blamed for providing unfair advantage to some but never that the system itself is unfair. In fact, it might be argued that this system provides an opportunity for people from my class to make contacts that can provide opportunities, which may otherwise be hard to come by in our capitalistic society.   

Our problem is different in that there are so many aspirants and so few opportunities. Hence, the first recognition has to be that far too many people who could be admitted will not be. In NEET, we are talking not of the elite institutions but all. We need to accept that the results of an exam are a lottery. They may be a test of competence but not an absolute one. The results will vary with the exam. The results may even vary depending upon when or where the exams are held.. This is true even if there is no leakage!

Solution:

  1. Accept uncertainty in the merit list. Perfect list is impossible.
  2. Do  not take one exam as the only one to determine a list
  3. Choose as many criterion as you believe are useful even if the value assigned is hard to quantify. E.g. to be a doctor, I would like to know if a candidate is 'empathetic'.  
  4.  Assign weightages to each category based on social need and values. These weightages may be changed. In fact, each institution could be free to select its own weightages.
  5. Finally, DO NOT create an ordered list. 
  6. So, far all the above are determined by HUMANS. Now technology can be used to compute a consolidated score for each. 
  7. The consolidtaed score is a probability weight, which can be used by the system to create the selected list.
  8. In fact as many customised lists can be created as there are institutions based on the weightages for that instituion. 
  9. It is easy for a student to apply on one site and specify the preferences for the  institutions.
  10. A side benefit - fixed quotas for various categories could  be replaced by weightages and the stigma of being from a quota removed. 
  11. How about adding a negative weight for those attending tution factories 😁 or a positive one for those who haven't! 
My earnest hope is that the system will leave out so many children of the priveleged society that there will be an accelerated development of more institutions of learning and the improvement and expansion of the existing ones. 

 

 

Friday, November 15, 2024

About time: replace nepotism by luck in recruitment - nothing else can be fairer

 The concept of finding the best candidates for a routine job would be fodder for The Onion were it not so impactful in its hypocrisy

If there are over a hundred qualified candidates for a job(or an educational program), we might as well accept and institutionalize the role  of luck in life.

Definitely have a test or a  process to shortlist the candidates meeting the minimum requirements. 

The test does not have to be secure and no-one need bother if someone cheated.

The next step is  to select the required number of candidates randomly.

The selected candidates must reappear for the qualification test in person to  ensure that they had not cheated and had not been impersonated. 

If any fail, replace them randomly from the shortlist of  candidates.

The whole process can be fast, inexpensive and as fair as the luck of  living allows.

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Revisiting a 20 year old experience - nothing is right with our colleges

 I really had no idea of how to respond to the Vice President's rant about diseased kids dying to go abroad to study!

My personal sympathies are obviously with Ravish Kumar's views

However, it brought back my memories of 20 years ago, when I had expected to finally be able to do something which was useful and made me happy. However, I might as well reproduce what I shared then - I may cringe at some of  the tone now but let the old feelings be:

Farewell to Academics

In my personal little universe 3 years ago, the planets and the stars imposed a gravitational field which constrained me. Fortunately, the need to change while remaining in my tiny world also provided an appealing opportunity. I had always wanted to teach – may be after retiring. Now I could start half a dozen years sooner.

The first year of teaching engineering was very exciting. We focussed on improving the labs. We used thin clients, which allowed us to have almost double the number of workstations within the same budget. We introduced Linux, open source databases and various other applications. My objective was not just to save money but a conviction that students must be exposed to a variety of environments so that they can learn and make decisions with more information. The wider range of exposure also prepares them for coping with changes, which are inevitable in the IT area.

After the high, the decay started. Water is there but the horse refuses to drink it! Something did not seem right - students of computer engineering and information technology not particularly enthusiastic about programming. Some may have decided to make a career in management but not such a large majority! Each semester I tried to correct what I thought were the problems but the impact was minimal.

It was clear that I was on the wrong track. I chanced upon a website on connected mathematics (http://ccl.northwestern.edu/cm ). The goal of this project was to help learners at all levels make sense of complex, non-linear phenomena. It was clear that I had not understood the complexity of the issues involved. I was not dealing with individual students but with a collection of students with interactions between them. The behaviour of the students was a consequence of the environment in which they were operating. That is why the same students would become pretty good programmers after joining a company while avoiding it during their studies for a degree.

I looked at my laundry list of the problems and realised that I could address none of them. Each item in the list may not have meant much but collectively, the impact was overwhelming. So, why get frustrated, especially when the gravitational fields had weakened considerably.

My (partial) laundry list of the environmental issues follows:

  1. A class size of 60 or more is too large. We are no longer dealing with a group of individuals but with a crowd. “We have unanimously decided to mass bunk.”

  2. Compulsory attendance. It is the wrong solution to solving the problem of disinterested students or tuition classes.

  3. Teachers are allowed to teach but are not qualified as examiners. That is clearly putting the cart before the horse.

  4. Every college in a university has the same syllabus. “You can choose any colour as long as it is black.” A teacher cannot innovate.

  5. A common final exam. The examiner, in order to ensure fairness to all colleges, is constrained to set a question paper which follows a well understood pattern. Our question papers invariably become a test of memory. Anything else would risk a front page coverage, “Out of syllabus paper”.

  6. The governments impose a ridiculous amount of paperwork and inflexible rules on colleges in order to tackle the problem of some unethical teaching institutions. We wind up penalising the honest institutions. A small headline in a paper, “Fed up with corruption, NRI donates college to the University.”

I do not know about my students but I learnt a lot in the last three years, including ridding myself of a 30 year itch to teach.

About me

PhD in physics but working in the software industry for 25 years.

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

A Light Comment almost 50 years ago and it still troubles - Butterfly Effect?

It was almost  50 years ago. We were having a chat about my stay for a year in Europe. I had loved the stay. I have no recollection of it except for a side comment I made and this was long before Nokia made the world conscious of the existence of Finland.

 If I had a say in where I was born, I would have chosen Finland.

Even today, long after my parents have passed away, I can still feel the unhappiness of my father. He did not understand my statement. Perhaps no-one did. 

I did not  wish to be a migrant - or worse, a refugee. However, that does not prevent me from a desire to have been born and brought up in a society which is egalitarian, caring, trusting and, I cannot explain, the feeling of being made comfortable and welcome even to a stranger like me. 

The trigger today was a forward I did not see, which said that we would not have known about it if "a CCTV camera had not been installed by my  brother".

I do not want to live my life worrying about a stranger robbing or killing me. That risk is negligible compared to each trip I take on the road -  whether driving or walking!


An Embarrassing Failure of Saving and Recycling Water - What not to do to save the planet

 I have long been bothered by using fresh water in a flush. I finally got a chance to  do  something about it when we decided to build an independent house.

I had a hard time convincing the contractor and the plumber of  what I wanted. The plumber was a little more emphatic that it won't work though he did not explain - unfortunately. 

I got them to separate the waste bath water and save it in two tanks - first one with a filter and second one to store it. The tank and pipes to the WC tanks were separate.  There was a separate pump to lift water from the grey water tank to the overhead tank meant for WC's only.

I moved in and the troubles started.

The waste water from the bathrooms wasn't much! Just the two  of us. Fortunately, especially with the water saving toilets, even the water requirement for the WC tanks was not much, despite 2 senior citizens needing to use the flush more often than they would have preferred.

So, the first lesson was that the cost of the additional expenditure did not match  the gain.

Worse was to follow.

I had searched a lot for filtering  grey water. There were the treatment plants which made no  sense at all for our needs and volumes. The rest were for rain water harvesting. Reminding me of the old crow and water pitcher tale. Bath water and washing machine water seemed quite clean. So, filtering with stones, sand and  charcoal powder seemed fine.

After a few days, there was a strange smell in bathrooms. We just couldn't figure it out. We called the plumber and he said that he had told us that it wouldn't work. The smell was the grey water smell and it will get worse. He  then said that he had made a provision to fill the WC tank with fresh water,  knowing that we will have to abandon the experiment. Shall he do so. And of course, I agreed.

I still had grey water. So, I got an additional small pump to use the grey water for gardening. 

Given the rains, I haven't used a drop of it for over 3 months now. Plus, even when it is bright and sunny, we consume enough to water a small part of the lawn.

I try to cheer myself up by trying to believe that every little bit helps even though my logic tells me - of course not. The upfront costs exceed the savings. I have made the planet a little worse.

I decided to share my learning experience in the hope that it may save someone from making the same stupid mistake and spending sleepless nights thinking about how could I have been so illogical and had refused to think through the implications.


Thursday, March 17, 2022

A way to get rid of reservation in higher education

 "Show me where is the answer in the text book!" - stated in an aggressive tone by a faculty member from another college. This memory was triggered by "The Habit of Copying: Are We Creating a Culture of Plagiarism?" 

 

I could not even have imagined that anyone could have such an expectation for a management information course. My disappointment with teaching is documented here.

 

If there is a shortage of supply, there will be malpractices and there is a shortage of seats for a decent education. Gaming the system, blaming reservations, etc will be inevitable.

 

Instead of trying to stop loopholes, what if we accepted that there is a shortage and that there is no perfect way to select the best. We could, of course, auction the seats. However, I doubt if that would seem ideal to anyone, including those supporting auction of coal mines and mobile spectrum! First come, first serve will also not be an acceptable option.

 

An alternate system is a random selection from among a set of shortlisted candidates. The selection for shortlisting could be very much like the current system; except that there is no queue; rather, a set of acceptable candidates. 

 

We can eliminate reservation of seats for varying categories of candidates. The focus can be to ensure and help candidates from deprived communities clear the entrance test barrier.

 

The tuition industry would suffer but, at least, I have for one would not shed a tear to see it disappear. 


Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Exponential Growth and Lockdown

The lecture by Prof Albert Bartlett had made an immense impact on me. I vividly remember the discussion on running out of oil based on Hubert peak. While shale oil may have delayed the disaster and alternate sources of energy may prevent a collapse, but had we reduced our growth, we may have avoided the climate change issue!

The main lesson though is:
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

What worries me about the current strategy is the same as in this article from Israel. I am not even sure if they have the parameters for the models right, in which case the predictions over the weeks can be way off.

Worse, it may create the illusion of having avoided the catastrophe which was never going to happen!

Applying a blanket lockdown over all the country implies that the authorities have no information about the potential spreaders, which is clearly unreasonable while claiming that there is no evidence of community transmission!

I am surprised at how scared people seem to be of even the shadow of Coronavirus, No wonder, the workers in farms are scared of working in the fields!

Meanwhile, the normal, routine illnesses are untreated.

The new normal?

Monday, April 6, 2020

What are the possible exit conditions of the Coronavirus Lockdown loop?

Being locked in is not pleasant. There is also a little guilt of going out of the house, especially for walks, even if there is virtually no one around. Could we be increasing the duration of the lockdown by being careless? Uncertainty about the duration of the lockdown is stressful.

So, I thought that if I were writing a program for the lockdown, what are the conditions which would determine the exit condition for the lockdown loop for a particular region with no person entering or leaving the region:

  1. There are no new cases emerging.
    1. The virus stopped spreading for no known reason. This is the way The Plague by Albert Camus ends.
    2. The virus has disappeared from the community thanks to the lockdown.
  2. The community has developed a herd immunity.
    1. If the lockdown is perfect, how can the community ever develop herd immunity?
If the region has not developed herd immunity and the borders of the region are opened, we will need to make sure that no infected or potentially infected person enters the community. Hence, testing and quarantine of each visitor will be mandatory.

If in spite of all efforts, an infected person enters the community, the lockdown will need to be imposed again.

Thursday, January 7, 2016

India should stop building roads and spend on autonomous transport

The surprising message for me after hearing this talk Keynote - AltCars Expo was the great reduction in the road space needed.

Assuming that this technology enables us to have a far better movement of traffic with the existing road infrastructure, we in India should be actively pursuing this future rather than building ever more roads. Can we make it work in India?

The cost of NOT doing it is visible in the example of Delhi:

I recall having a sore throat on every trip I took to Delhi by the time I reached my office from the airport. This was on trips to  Delhi prior to the introduction of CNG. The experience after that (2002 onward?) was far better  for some years. Meanwhile, Delhi built more roads, more flyovers, and even a metro, but the net result is that it has achieved the status of the most polluted city in the world!

How can autonomous vehicles share the road space with the current Indian traffic? It just seems impossible when even in the US, humans tend to hit the autonomous vehicles from the rear.

We should start with autonomous public transport, both buses and taxis, and create a legal framework which disciplines the human drivers harshly.

How about legally treating any human driver who hits an autonomous vehicle as attempting suicide. All legal responsibilities of insurance companies would be exactly the same as in the case of a suicide.

We can experiment with such a law today with riders on motor bikes  who are not wearing a helmet. I am pretty sure it will introduce social pressures and modify the behaviour of the riders. It may even help create a market for air-cooled helmets.

Friday, February 20, 2015

Safety in paper ceritficates? - An entry on the PAN site would be of far better

How would I submit a form 15H form(to not deduct tax on interest income) to a branch in another city? One year, I had submitted the form for my mother but the tax had been deducted. I had no proof and what would have been the point. My mistake had been to not check that the taxes were being deducted each quarter by that bank.

  • Income tax office has progressed and made it easy to know the taxes deducted at source. I wish they would go a step further and I should be able to file form 15H with them(obviously online) and the banks should use this information using the PAN number. 
  •  This year my pension has stopped even though I had submitted a certificate that I am alive. It is a ridiculously low sum but when I go back to Chandigarh, I will have to take up the issue with the branch. For those who die, if they had a PAN, the registrar of deaths could change the status on the PAN site. Why bother to collect 'proof' of being alive once a year? I suppose I could die abroad or may disappear without a trace but do these few instances justify the collection and storage of the huge number of life certificates each year and does it even help?
  • Even the tax status, e.g. resident/non-resident, could be just reported to the PAN site and there should be no need to change bank accounts from resident to NRO, at least for individuals who are not HNI. Technically, only individuals residing in India can open a savings bank account. So, what is the status of these accounts once a person is non-resident? This is a routine issue for any IT person going on an assignment for a year or more. As per the law, should the person close each such account if not residing in India for more than 6 months in a year?






Sunday, August 31, 2014

Nuclear power and human reaction to risks

Yesterday, I saw a documentary "Gentilly or not to be" about the closure or refurbishing of a nuclear power plant in Quebec. I was deeply affected. Was the increase in the risk of cancer in children being deliberately ignored? I spent a couple of hours searching and reading various articles, especially related to the German study.

I then went for a walk and while reflecting on it, started to wonder about my fear of flying. Even today, as the plane takes off or lands, my stomach tightens, my heartbeat increases. I am unreasonably stressed. I think it is related to the minimal survival chances should there be an accident. The true risk is the probability of not surviving and there is an accident! Our emotions seem to ignore the second factor!

I started to look at some numbers to, at least, get a non-emotive perspective.

acute respiratory infections
diarrhea
measles
malaria
malnutrition
The most common cancers in children are (childhood) leukemia (34%), brain tumors (23%), and lymphomas (12%).[11] In 2005, 4.1 of every 100,000 young people under 20 years of age in the U.S. were diagnosed with leukemia, and 0.8 per 100,000 died from it.[5]
The issue is not just cancer. It is overall health. I think I will still choose to stay close to a nuclear power plant than downstream from a dam or near a thermal power plant.

Friday, August 8, 2014

Juvenile crime and A Clockwork Orange

Juvenile Justice (should one say revenge and retribution?) reminded me of, possibly the most disturbing film I have ever seen - Stanley Kubrick's A Clockwork Orange. I had seen it when it came out.  The ideas it had raised remain fresh in my mind.

Recently, when my son saw it at retrospective, I decided to read Anthony Bugess's original book, especially 21st, the last, chapter left out of the American edition and not a part of the film.
Kubrick called Chapter 21 "an extra chapter" and claimed[7] that he had not read the original version until he had virtually finished the screenplay, and that he had never given serious consideration to using it. In Kubrick's opinion, the final chapter was unconvincing and inconsistent with the book.
However, the final chapter makes it even harder to think of retribution as a part of juvenile justice. It makes the whole juvenile period seem like a biological imperative through which many human males pass and outgrow. All this makes the plight of dealing with victims even harder.

Saturday, August 2, 2014

Ironic - the fate of computer teachers in the era of Software

It is ironic to read 20 computer teachers injured in police action. Using private companies to teach school children IT skills started as a quick solution to fulfill  an urgent need. However, it probably became a permanent feature as a way of keeping costs of the education departments low. I am sure(or hope) such considerations are not involved!

An excellent example of the effectiveness of private sector in a public role is the experience of the US Prisons as wonderfully explained by John Oliver!

Trying to save money by offloading public services and infrastructure to private sector is probably a pretty bad idea.

Monday, July 28, 2014

Beyond CSAT - aim to select the optimum group of civil servants and not the "best" individuals

I watched a discussion on Lok Sabha Tv for an hour about the aptitude test of UPSC which has been in the news recently - its need and its fairness. Neither the discussion nor anything I have seen in the paper talks about the fact that if there is a single test, any single outcome may seem unfair even if the test is not.

As the ratio of the number of candidates to the number of people selected increases to the levels in India, a thought experiment can tell us that if the test were repeated, examiners interchanged, the list of selected candidates can vary substantially.

A very large number of candidates not selected could have done better than the selected candidates on another day or in another mental state.

The scenario becomes far more complex if one tries to think of what would be an excellent group of candidates for the civil service. After all no one would select a soccer team by any method where all the selected players  could turn out to be goal keepers!

The concern about the mix of the outcome is very real. The discussion had references to states  complaining about the number of candidates selected from their state because of the changes in the exam system.

Suppose there was a  formula for the optimum selection of the group with factors like
  • Test result
    • overall
    • individual subject
  • hetergeneity
    • male/female
    • economic background
    • mother tongue
    • place of residence
    • social background
  • Affirmative action 
    • Replacement of reservations
  • New blood
    • people whose parents/relations have not been in any government service
Factors to be considered could be specified. The multiple objective functions could be specified. The number of objectives could be quite large. It will make no difference to the implementation of the algorithm. The source code of the algorithm could be published.

These could be tested against the past examinations to create the lists of who would have been selected had this process been in use.

I am certain if the outcome is fair to all stakeholders, the concern over unfairness of the exam and bias of examiners will decrease. But more significantly, we can have a group of administrators in whom the society as a whole has confidence and which as a group is likely to deliver better outcomes for the governance of the country.




Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Accidents and Compensation - Losing the moral issues

I recall seeing a show as a young boy which deeply moved me.  A person had just been acquitted of causing a death in an accident. The accident resulted from a medical problem(blackout?) the car driver had but without being aware of it. However, this person is not able to come to terms with his own role and commits suicide.

This story is refreshed in my mind whenever I read news of accidents and compensation. It seems as if the moral culpability seems to be getting lost in the financial compensation conflict. I doubt if higher compensation causes the drivers to be more cautious - e.g. "people in that car may be very well off so I had better be careful".

The compensation was awarded now for an accident four years ago. So, wouldn't it be better if there was a very fast, unambiguous payment to the victims without any need for courts or tribunals and without having to determine the status and potential worth of the victims in society.

Each individual should have his or her own life/accident insurance  to ensure that his/her family is not financially hurt by an accident, whether in traffic or roof falling down or gas cylinder exploding or ...

There has to be a better way to minimize the number of accidents and ensure that the victims do not suffer or have to fight for their rights.

Interesting perspective about medical malpractice suits in the US. It seems to reflect that the malpractice suits are not a financial burden but rather a significant cost to the society in non-monetary terms.

But medical malpractice is a business driven almost purely by profit through tragedy. Decisions often hinge on the theatrical performance of two competing teams to an audience selected specifically for their lack of knowledge regarding the issue they're judging. There has to be a better way.
A change in the attitude of the doctors may have reduced the malpractice suits. E.g. the following which still holds for India
It seems hard to believe now that there was a time when medicine was such a paternalistic profession that we were never expected to consult with a patient about any treatment plan or procedure (I'm the doctor, you're the patient was the expected answer to any question). It was once considered unethical even to inform a patient of a bad prognosis (we felt it would be detrimental to their health if they knew they were dying).
Who should compensate

From the news report:
The accident occurred because the taxi was being driven at a high speed and the Canter driver suddenly applied brakes in the middle of the road.
 ... Gurdev and Uday Shankar to pay the family a compensation of Rs 1.19 crore, including costs. However, in the interest of justice, the court ordered that Bharti Axa General Insurance Company Limited, the insurer of the Canter, would make the payment of Reena’s share of Rs 60 lakh and then recover it from the two accused.
I would have guessed that the taxi was unambiguously at fault for not keeping a safe distance - no matter what the driver in front does. Canter driver may be fined and penalised if the brake lights were not functioning.

Justice? Wasn't the taxi insured? Isn't it a legal requirement to have 3rd party insurance? Who monitors it?

Thursday, July 10, 2014

New IIM's and IIT's - why not University Towns

As I sat passively listening to various post budget discussions on Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha TV, one commentator struck a chord. It is fine to build new IIT's but without quality faculty, mediocrity will prevail. And why would well qualified people go to remote places?

In another discussion, one commentator, I believe an expert in economics, was asked about jobless growth. He ridiculed it and said that there was no such thing. You cannot have growth without jobs. It blew my mind. I wanted someone to question that comment but no one did. It is not just a problem of the rich countries with software eating jobs.



The government wants to create new IIT's, IIM's and urban centers of excellence. Nothing wrong with the idea itself.

So, what if instead of creating each institution in a separate place, the government creates university towns starting with a student population of 10,000 plus. Obviously, Berkeley and numerous small but well known towns in the US come to mind. However, our visit to Manipal had been a remarkably pleasant experience. Now one can even point to the CEO's of Microsoft and Nokia and suggest that Manipal may be an example worth emulating.

A university town ensures that academic and student populations of diverse disciplines interact and learn from each other and not just what is taught in classrooms. The size of IIT, Kanpur assured that there was just one restaurant, I think called Red Rose. It was dark & dingy and I saw rats running around. (I spent a year as a postdoc at IIT,K). An adequate student population ensures a lively, vibrant environment. These are fun environments for faculty and families as well.

The best way to prepare for the future is to learn and not based on the jobs available today, which is why I had thought that the Delhi university four year program was a worthwhile experiment. University towns may instead be tremendous opportunities for the young Indians.

Personal Experience:
Ropar is not all that remote just an hour's drive from Chandigarh. Yet, the IIT Ropar has a problem attracting faculty, at least in Computer Science. I enjoyed being able to experiment with content and style of teaching unlike in a traditional engineering college. Although I was not very happy with the outcomes, I was ready to try another experiment based on this video of Eric Mazur. However, the desire to experiment and see if students would learn better was not enough compensation to drive an hour each way for even three days a week.

Build one in Goa

Saturday, June 7, 2014

Why can't we go up, after all our population has gone sky high

I feel very sad every time I read news like this:

While Panjab University will be allotted 100 acres in Kajheri and the area vacated after razing Colony Number 5, the PGIMER will be given 150 acres in the Sarangpur institutional area.
Confirming the development, UT Chief Architect Sumit Kaur said: “The PGIMER will be allocated land only in the institutional area, which may be split in parts.”
A senior UT official said PGIMER Director Prof YK Chawla had requested for land area closest possible to the existing campus in view of the emergency involved in patient care and quick commutation of staff and patients.
The  reason is that we as a society seem to be remarkably closed minded, not just to the idea of building up. Building up does not mean arbitrary increase in height of buildings. It is a conscious decision which may allow a far easier and more economical provision of infrastructure for a reasonably comfortable life. For example,
UPDATE: Came across the problem of garbage in the  garden city.

I find it very difficult to believe that
Simple solutions could lend themselves to cities across India. First, the city’s waste collectors should put a stop to picking up organic waste. These have to be composted in houses or within building communities.
I just don't see how millions of us can handle organic garbage within a house or a small complex. Had it been simple and economical, it would have spread virally. All people I know want to have clean surroundings. Most homes do not even have a garbage disposal unit like an InSinkErator for convenient disposal of waste food, which stinks a lot and very soon.

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Rich Get Richer not quite the Fairy tale of capitalism

It was a very pleasant surprised to read Mihir Shah's Fairy Tale Capitalism today after my entry just yesterday. For example,
In slowly growing economies, past wealth takes on a disproportionately higher importance. Inherited wealth grows faster than overall output and income.
Exponential growth has obvious limitations; so, the growth has to slow down.

Thomas Piketty is striking a chord :) Hopefully, the interest generated will result in political changes forcing the politicians to bite the hands which feed them




Monday, March 31, 2014

Children's Mind - the little memories that remain indelible

Franz Kafka's Letter to his Father is tied up in my mind with a tiny incident which still makes me feel guilty. Chances are that I recall this incident because I was told about it as I was growing up.

My father was keen that my grandmother learn to read. She started to read headlines. She was too embarrassed to keep asking my mother or father so would ask me instead. It seems that I lost my patience once and said that "How many times have I told you that".

My grandmother told my father that I was right and that she was too old to learn. There was no way that I could undo the damage I had done and still remember it even when I am a grandfather.

Perhaps that's why the following sentence deeply affected me when I read Kafka in my college days. The way a child interprets events is not necessarily the way we(adults) expect:

I am not going to say that this was wrong—perhaps there was really no other way of getting peace and quiet that night—but I mention it as typical of your methods of bringing up a child and their effect on me. I dare say I was quite obedient afterward at that period, but it did me inner harm.


Friday, October 25, 2013

Compensation for Medical Negligence - Does it solve the problem?

My first reaction to the following news was discomfort - 
The Supreme Court on Thursday awarded a whopping Rs 5.96 crore as compensation to be paid by Kolkata-based AMRI Hospital and three doctors to a US-based Indian-origin doctor for medical negligence ...
It did not feel right. In  fact, it reminded me of Michael Sandel's concerns about becoming a market society where money dominates even moral and ethical issues. 

It feels terribly wrong that the difference is compensation can be so large based on a person's status in life. I wonder how courts will value a child. Will it based on the expected earnings as determined by his or her family background - an obvious reality but hardly the one we should be condoning and encouraging.

The US health care system is not exactly an inspiring example of a system which provides excellent care, without negligence, for all.

The chances are that even in India :
  • the hospital will have an insurance cover
  • insurance company will pay
  • insurance company will raise insurance rates
  • hospitals and doctors will raise their rates
  • we will pay more
  • the doctor will make no fewer errors as it is highly unlikely that the doctor wanted to make a sloppy diagnosis or provide wrong care
  • high costs result in perverse incentive for delaying/avoiding treatment
The same logic is true for motor vehicle accidents. I have not heard of a single person who is a more careful driver because of the compensation he may have to pay in case of an accident.

What may be more effective?
  • A person who makes the error should be accountable and punished.
  • Revocation of a license quickly (not 15 years later) in case it is malpractice or an error which should(not could) have been avoided
  • Limit compensation to a socially valuable amount. A poor victim's family needs financial help a lot more than a rich victim's.
  • Impact of a victim's lost income should be covered by the individual's own insurance policy and not the insurance company covering the doctor (or the driver in case of motor vehicles).
I may even be inclined to favour an insurance cover by the doctors and hospitals where all care costs of the patient are returned in case treatment does not succeed regardless of whether a medical error was involved.